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<\/a><\/p>\nHere\u2019s what we know as of mid-February, 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n After taking office on January 20, Trump swiftly signed executive orders targeting immigration and expressing intentions to: freeze asylum cases, undermine long-held rights such as birthright citizenship and expand military power at the border, among other violations to human rights as described in the US constitution. ICE has begun mass expulsions without due process, deporting migrants in shackles on military planes\u2014an unprecedented display of theatrics no doubt designed to reinforce criminalization narratives.<\/p>\n On the campaign trail, Trump had vowed to deport 20 million immigrants, putting 5.1 million citizen children at risk of family separation. He aims to dismantle the country\u2019s already-inadequate legal pathways to citizenship (including those based on employment, family ties and temporary protected status). The U.S. Congress, under narrow Republican control, is expected to support crackdown efforts, but we don\u2019t yet know to what degree.<\/p>\n Latin Americans make up 70% of the 11 million undocumented individuals in the U.S., per the Center for Immigration Studies of New York. Nations like Guatemala are bracing for an influx of deportees and the loss of overseas remittances, which account for nearly 20% of its GDP.<\/p>\n Of course, migration from Central America doesn\u2019t occur in a vacuum. U.S. corporations and government institutions have engaged in decades-long campaigns of economic exploitation and military violence in shameless plays for control of the region. Though obscured by propaganda about migration, this history has created many of the conditions that now compel people to leave home.<\/p>\n After Trump\u2019s turbulent first presidency, Biden promised a more humanitarian approach, pitching small programs that claimed to address root causes of migration. The actual effects\u2013like the Democratic party\u2019s prioritization of the matter in general\u2013were dubious. Biden\u2019s administration continued harsh policies including restricting asylum under Title 42 and other emergency orders. President Ar\u00e9valo\u2019s 2024 visit to the Biden White House, to some, signaled a faint hope for future U.S.-Guatemala collaboration. After all, the relationship between the two countries is vital, with substantial trade relationships and mutual interests. Regardless, it looks like anything discussed there, even if it was just platitudes, is completely untenable now.<\/p>\n A return to a more transactional style of politics in the White House will mean greater pressure on other countries to intensify their border enforcement. During his first term, Trump withheld aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras until they accepted \u2018safe third country\u00b4 policies which placed the burden of caring for U.S. deportees on their already-strained systems. Vital humanitarian services and projects to fight corruption, like the International Commission against Impunity (CICIG in Spanish), were paralyzed by the lapse. Weakened ability to fight corruption has dire consequences in Guatemala, where political elites emboldened by global trends toward the right continue to undermine democracy, even attempting to prevent the exchange of power to current present Ar\u00e9valo in 2024.<\/p>\n Guatemala\u2019s former president Giammattei had positioned himself as an ally to Trump, in part due to the U.S.<\/p>\n administration\u2019s support for his purging the government of opponents who challenged his power, including those investigating him for corruption. In 2022, Giammattei then distanced himself from the Biden administration, declining an invitation to the Ninth Summit of the Americas. His trip to DC instead prioritized meetings with Republican electeds and far-right think tanks. Giammetti even demanded that USAID withdraw from Guatemala as a sign of his alliance with conservative U.S. politics of the time. Vestiges of these relationships still exist in national politics with opponents of Ar\u00e9valo publicly celebrating Trump\u2019s win.<\/p>\n The strategic U.S.-Guatemala aid relationship is also at risk. Since 1961, USAID (the largest arm of the county\u2019s international aid and philanthropy network) has funded programs addressing health, education, work opportunities and more. This hundreds of millions of dollars annually is critically important to nonprofit and civil organizations in Guatemala. This stream has even funded aspects of EntreMundos in the past through one of its mediating organizations.<\/p>\n At the time of publishing, right-wing politicians are again threatening to halt international aid. Elimination of the Inter-American Development Foundation was proposed during Trump\u2019s campaign and on February 2, Elon Musk said his \u2018Department of Government Efficiency\u2019 (though still not technically endowed with legal power) was in the process of \u201cshutting down\u201d USAID. Workers were put on leave and programs frozen, spurring global condemnation. Fortunately, there are Congressional checks on the Executive branch\u2019s ability to change budgets, so it remains to be seen how effective these destructive announcements will ultimately be. By February 3rd, a Democratic senator from Hawaii had already put a hold on Trump\u2019s state department appointees until aid is restored, and we can expect many more such examples of interference into future power grabs.<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n